May 2011 – Dan Vock

Stateline did a five-part series on the financial outlook for some of the biggest states in the Union. I took on Illinois and, not surprisingly, the picture is bleak.

SPRINGFIELD, Illinois — The Illinois General Assembly has given itself five years to fix the state’s dismal fiscal situation. It will be a painful five years.

The countdown is timed to new personal and corporate income taxes approved by lawmakers this January. Most of them will expire in January 2016. Before the extra revenue sources go away, the state somehow needs to get itself back on a permanently stable financial footing. The 2011 tax increases won’t do that by themselves.

In fact, they won’t come close. Even though they bring in more money than the entire state budget of Iowa, legislative forecasters say the only way the tax hikes would lift Illinois out of the fiscal hole it has spent years digging for itself would be if lawmakers kept spending flat through 2014. That’s unlikely, given growing bills for pensions and health care. And right now, at least, it is hard to imagine any more tax increases during the five-year period. So massive program cuts are certain to come, on top of cuts that already have been made.

The 2010 Census revealed a lot about the gradual moves that are shaking up Illinois. From Illinois Issues:

The population details — laid out in this year’s once-in-a-decade release of U.S. census numbers — show how Illinoisans are changing as a people. As the moving vans are dropping people off in Illinois’ suburbs, they are loading up families moving out of Chicago and rural areas downstate. We are becoming not only more suburban, but more diverse. Hispanic Illinoisans outnumber blacks for the first time; if not for the surge in Hispanic population, Illinois would hardly be growing at all.

The decennial snapshot from the census is perhaps the best portrait we have of the state as a whole. It illustrates how we are changing and what challenges we are soon likely to face. The growth of the outer suburbs puts stress on local infrastructure, such as roads, sewer pipes and school buildings, and affects regional and state resources, too. Likewise, the movement of African-Americans out of Chicago, the emptying of rural areas and the growth of Latinos in nearly every corner of the state will have lasting effects on Illinois politics and policy.

The migrations affect just about everything the state does. That is why understanding the Census is so important. But, of course, many people are most concerned about the effects on elections, which is why the Census occurs in the first place. I looked at that too.

Overall, the census numbers are bad news for Democrats. Over the decade, state House districts now held by Democrats lost a combined total of 87,000 people. Republican-controlled districts, on the other hand, gained nearly half a million people. Dozens of districts reflect that pattern. The clear trend is that Republican-held areas are growing, while Democratic districts are losing people.

Dan Vock

Smart reporting. Great writing.

Month: May 2011

Illinois faces daunting fiscal challenge

Illinois population spreads out